Free Agency 2013

And the craziness that is the real NFL offseason began about two hours ago: free agency.

ESPN and the NFL Network are going bonkers trying to cover it.  But what's the use?  Since free agency began in the early 1990's one thing is certain: teams that spend big in March (namely the Washington Redskins, Dallas Cowboys, New York Jets, Oakland Raiders, and most recently the Philadelphia Eagles) few rarely win in February.

Yeah, it's awesome to drive the fans' expectations up with huge signings (again, think of the supposed "Dream Team" that was the Philadelphia Eagles two years ago . . . the same team that has been terrible for two years in a row), but it never pans out.

So this doesn't bode very well for the Miami Dolphins who are spending big bucks to land players right now.  Not wise.

Learn from the history of the woeful Redskins under Dan Schneider.  Of the 20 worst free agents since 1993, the Redskins are responsible for a majority of them.

For example -

Albert Haynesworth DT.  He had a monster years for the Titans in 2007 and 2008.  Then he signed a 100 million dollar contract with Washington.  Everyone crowned him the best defensive linemen in the NFL and thought this would push the Redskins over the top.  Well, he lasted barely 2 seasons and has gone from being the most dominate linemen in the NFL to a where is he now? candidate.

Deion Sanders CB. The Skins signed the aging corner to a monster contract, yet he never played close to his past ability.  Huge waste of money.

Bruce Smith DE. Again the Redskins were trying to bank on an aging veteran being able to give them a few good years.  As it turned out, Smith gave them nothing. And they were out huge amounts of money yet again.

And the list goes on and on.

The most effective way to win in the NFL is how the Giants, Packers, and Steelers have been able to do it: spend lightly in free agency, draft well, extend the contracts of your own players, and allow the headaches to leave via free agency.

Look at the Steelers.  Today they lost Mike Wallace who was just too much of a me guy to fit in with the Steelers.  So they let him sign a huge contract with Miami.  What will the Steelers do?  Well, the same thing that they did the last time they let a prima donna wide receiver leave (Santonio Holmes), they will draft a replacement who will pan out (in this case, that is how they wound up with Mike Wallace in the first place, the drafted him to fill Holmes' void).  So look for the Steelers to take a WR in one of the first three rounds.  You won't hear much from him in 2013, but you can expect to see him hauling in 1,000 yards worth of passes in 2014.

Fans hate this approach because it isn't sexy.  They don't have anything to talk about until late April when the draft takes place.

Even my Bungals have finally started to see the light when it comes to this.  Not that they have ever been big spenders in free agency.  But as of late they have been able to draft very well (and that's a reason they have been to the playoffs 3 of the past 4 seasons).

This current crop of free agents is their first great draft class that lead them to the playoffs.  But they'll let some of these guys walk.  Most likely RT Andre Smith who supposedly wants 9 million dollars a year.  The Bengals have other contracts to extend (namely the best defensive tackle in the league, Geno Atkins, and one of the best receivers, AJ Green) instead of giving it to a RT who has put one very good year together.

In addition to Smith, the Bengals will likely let MLB Ray Malualuaga go.  His play has tailed off and he isn't worth big money.

The did franchise the DE taken in the third round of that draft, Michael Johnson, who will get 11 million dollars to play next year.

So they will attempt to do what the Steelers and Packers do: sign your talented players to contract extensions and use the draft to replace the solid players you lose.  In this case the Bengals hope to extend the contracts of Johnson, Atkins, and Green and then draft Smith's replacement (possibly DJ Fluker from Alabama).

It's not glamorous and it won't make the headlines on ESPN or the NFL Network.  But it's the most effective way to build a winner, which does make all the headlines in January and February.