Thursday, May 08, 2014

Christmas in May

Oh how I love the NFL draft.  Even it the NFL for some foolish reason pushed the date back three weeks.

Still, this is my Christmas, for hope springs eternal for all 32 teams.  Unlike free agency, which rarely ever pans out for the big spenders - just look at the perils of the Washington Redskins over the years, such as Dana Stubblefield, Adam Archuleta, Deion Sanders, and Albert Haynseworth (those signings and choosing Steve Spurrier as your head coach have doomed the 'Skins), the draft actually can turn around an entire franchise.  Just look at Seattle.  You land your quarterback and most of your secondary in two strong drafts and you're set.  Luckily for the Bengals, since 2009, they have had consistently strong drafts where they land at least three starters every year.

So without further ado - here is my 2014 mock draft

1. Khalil Mack - OLB. Oakland.  I know it's a shock.  But just like last year, I think there's going to be a surprise at the top of the draft. I don't know if it'll be Oakland who is foolish enough to move up.  Not that Mack isn't worth it.  He might be the most impressive player in the draft.  However, what Houston is asking for this spot is ridiculous and will cost Oakland dearly. But they did trade away first and second rounders to Cincy for Carson Palmer in the twilight of his career. So giving up at least one, maybe two picks over the next couple drafts won't be a high price tag for a young superstar.

2.  Sammy Watkins - WR. St. Louis.  The Rams get a playmaker on offense to help out their quarterback and add some punch to a passing game that could be potent with last year's pint size first rounder Tavon Austin.

3.  Jadeveon Clowny - DE. Jacksonville.  The Jags are the lucky recipients of the second (if not the first) best player in the draft. Clowny laid an egg this year after a stellar sophomore campaign.  They haven't had a lot of success on their defensive line in past drafts, and to get the "best" pass rusher in the draft class this year is a coup.

4.  Blake Bortles - QB. Cleveland. Poor Cleveland. They've been through so many quarterbacks . . . all the way back to Tim Couch. They haven't had any stability at that position since the 1980's when Bernie Kosar was routinely making them legit.  They have to get better there if there is any hope of turning this around.  Outside of Joe Haden at corner, the Browns have drafted badly over the years.

5.  Johnny Manziel - QB. Houston. A total roll of the dice here.  He could be the next Russell Wilson or the next Cade McNown (who? exactly).  But if you're a franchise that is rebuilding, you have to get the right QB in place.  It's proven (Indy, Seattle, Cincy, Washington) that you can win with a rookie quarterback.  Manziel is from Texas.  The Texans would be wise to appease their fan base by grabbing him.  And if you miss on him, use one of the extra picks you gained in the trade down to grab another signal caller next year or beyond.

6.  Aaron Donald - DT. Atlanta Falcons.  The defense in Atlanta was horrible.  They road Matt Ryan's arm and his dangerous receivers for just too long.  Their running back got old and they have nothing at tight end.  But those issues can be addressed on days two and three.  Right now grab someone who can make a major impact on that defense.

7.  Odell Beckham Jr. - WR. Tampa Bay. I know the Bucs are a mess too.  Schiano is gone and they're rebuilding.  I think they're heartbroken that Donald went the pick before.  But if you can't add stud d linemen, you have to add playmakers.  And Beckham is a touchdown waiting to happen.

8.  Justing Gilbert - CB MN. The Vikes defense, especially under Zim, will rely heavily on press, man-to-man corners.  Gilbert is the top rated one in this class and will pair well with the Xavier Rhodes to help turn a miserable defense around.

9.  Greg Robinson - OT Buffalo. The best tackle in the draft slides to nine. Hard to imagine, but it could happen.  The Bills would be all too happy to scoop him up and let him play on the left side for a decade.

10. Jake Matthews - OT Detroit.  WR is tempting but you have to keep your quarterback upright and from throwing off of his back foot.

11.  Odell Beckham JR. - CB Tennessee.  A playmaker for the offense, which is really missing a punch.

12.  Zach Martin - OT Giants. The Giants love their Golden Domers, and Martin is a massive talent to add to their offensive line.  They always seem to throw it too much with Eli Manning.  Might as well bring in a buy to help keep Eli upright and healthy.

13.  Taylor Lewan - OT  Rams.  Had Lewan came out last year, he'd have been a top ten pick easily.  He slips a bit this year, but not too far.  The Rams are old at tackle and could use a player there.  Honestly, though, this is a key spot for teams to move up to draft a player who is sliding (Bridgewater or Ebron).  So look for the Rams to trade down and pick up more picks.

14.  Ha Ha Clinton Dix - SS Bears.  The Bears need to get younger on defense. Their offense is good enough with the players they have. It's just that their defense is terrible.  Dix is just too good to let slide any more down this list.  He's not a glaring need for the Bears, but their defense needs so much work they could take any defensive player and plug him in and it'd help.

15.  C. J. Mosley - ILB Steelers. Couldn't ask for a better match here: the best ILB in the draft with a team that has a long history of success at that position. He'd be a terror for them.

16. Calvin Pryor - SS Cowboys. They haven't had much luck at the safety position since Roy Williams grew old.  The Cowboys defense is woeful and, much like the Bears, they could get better with any player they take on defense.

17.  Jake Matthews - WR Ravens. I think the record for WRs taken in the first round will fall this year.  The Ravens need to add more playmakers to make Flacco's life easier.

18.  Anthony Barr- OLB Jets. He's a bit raw having only played the position for two years, but I don't see the Jets going offense here.  They could go QB, but how would that look?  Knowing Rex Ryan, he'll look to add to their strengths and win ugly next year.  They could do it too if Barr pans out.

19.  Eric Ebron - TE Dolphins. The Fins needs to add more playmakers to their offense to help out their young QB.  They've added free agents (Mike Wallace) to their passing game and have some young runners.  Their isn't much at the TE position though. And they land the top rated one here.

20.  Brandin Cooks - WR Cardinals.  A different kind of WR for the Cards to pair with Fitzgerald. They've been trying to find him a running mate for awhile, but they haven't had any luck.  This time they don't go for a carbon copy of Fitzgerald (tall and strong). Instead they go for a smaller but lighting fast receiver.  Quarterback is an option here too with Palmer not getting any younger.

21.  Daqueez Denard - CB Packers.  The Packers needs to play better on the corner.  Denard is a finished product from the Big 10 and will work very well for the Packers.

22.  Kony Ealy - DE Eagles.  The Eagles can use help on the defensive line.  Their offense is strong, though they might tab a wide receiver to replace Jackson, but they can do that in the second round. That's exactly where they found Jackson in 2008.  Since this draft is so deep in receivers one or two will fall to the second round.

23. Marqise Lee - WR Chiefs.  Here is one WR that won't fall to the Eagles in the second round.  He gets scooped up by the Chiefs.  Their QB has played well for them, but they could always use more playmakers around him.

24.  Ryan Shazier - OLB Bengals. A hometown kid to the Bengals. Their secondary is getting older, but they can address that later as they aren't looking for a starter at either corner position yet.  Shazier has the speed and athleticism to be a terror along with Vontaz Burfict on the outside.  Put Shazier at WLB and watch him make plays.

25.  Kyle Fuller- CB Chargers.  The Chargers hit two home runs in last year's draft on offense. This year they add to their secondary which will be tested when they play the Chiefs and Broncos four times a year.

26.  Bradley Roby - CB Browns. And the run on CBs begins. The Browns need to add a solid corner to pair with Joe Hayden. Roby is from in-state and could make an impact right away.

27.  Morgan Moses - OT Saints. The Saints are a very talented team. They have depth everywhere and could go any position (other than QB), but they can't pass up adding a talented OT to their roster to help Drew Brees.

28.  Kelvin Benjamin - WR Panthers. I've never seen a position gutted by a team the way the Panthers gutted their receiving corps.  They have to put someone out there for Cam Newton.

29.  Dee Ford - DE New England. The Pats, who haven't had luck at all drafting for defensive pass rushers, take another shot at one here.

30.  Jason Varrett - CB SF.  The Niners keep adding tough playmakers to their secondary.  This kid has blinding speed to stick with all receivers. The Niners try to counter the Seahawks' secondary depth with this pick.

31.  Carlos Hyde- RB Broncos. The Broncos shock everyone by taking the top running back a bit early in the first round.  What other need do the Broncos have?

32.  Timmy Jernigan - DT Seattle. The Seahawks could draft any one really.  They like to take gambles, so I have them going to help build their defense which helped them win the Super Bowl last year.  Why not make a strength even stronger?

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