2011 Draft

How nice has this off season been?  With the NFL lock out, there's been no free agency and nothing for reporters or the NFL Network to blow out of proportion.  It's been grand.

Secretly, I'm hoping there is no 2011 NFL season.  How nice would that be?  I wouldn't have to get angry at the Bungals and jump ship after week five.  We could just enjoy college football on Saturdays and relax with no frustrations on Sundays.

We can still hope, though, as talks aren't going to resume between owners and players until the middle of May.

But the draft is almost here, and I can't wait.  After all, hope always springs eternal with the draft.  And after an uncommon year of doing well and having a late first round pick last year, the Bungals are back to familiar territory, a top five draft pick this year.

With Carson Palmer ready to retire after nearly a decade of misery in the Queen City, it appears the Bengals are going to grab a QB with their fourth pick overall.  But no so fast! 

Their history at the QB position in the first round is terrible.  Greg Cook was a home run until he crushed his shoulder against Kansas City during his phenomenal rookie year.  Jack Thompson, the Throwin' Samoan out of Washington State, never panned out - though we did trade him to Tampa Bay for a first round draft pick that should have been Steve Young (but he vaulted for the USFL).  Thompson's claim to infamy is that he was that he was one of two QB's taken ahead of Joe Montana (Phil Simms was the other, but he panned out at least).  Then came the two biggest blunders of all: David Klingler with the 6th pick in 1992 and Akili Smith with the third overall pick in 1999.  Each player set the franchise back a decade.

* As a side note - those damn 49ers won't stop haunting us!  Who was Greg Cook's offensive coordinator during his phenomenal rookie year?  Bill Walsh.  Who did we skip over for Thompson? Joe Montana (who would kill the Bungals in two Super Bowls, '81 and '88)?  Who did we try and select only to have him jump to the USFL for more money? Steve Young (who would back up Montana in the '88 Super Bowl and then win one himself in '94).  And in '85, what WR did we select in the first round (though the 49ers tried desperately to trade up to get him)? Eddie Brown!  Who did the 49ers have to 'settle' for in the first round when they couldn't move ahead of the Bengals for a WR?  Someone named Jerry Rice.  Oh the horror!  The horror!

It wasn't until 2003 that the Bungals had Carson Palmer sitting there for them at #1 that they finally got their much sought after franchise quarterback.  He (and Marvin Lewis) are the sole reasons the Bengals have actually won two division titles over those 9 years.

But now he wants out and is ready to retire rather than play another down for the Bungals.

So that leave us with the top two QB prospects: Cam Newton (another Akili Smith?) and Blaine Gabbert (another David Klingler?).  The similarities are frightening.  Newton had a stellar year culminating in the Heisman.  But last year was his only good year.  Smith didn't win the Heisman, but he was phenomenal in one year with Oregon and that never translated to the NFL.  Will Newton pan out?  Hard to tell.

Gabbert comes from a spread attack much like Klingler did coming out of the University of Houston.  He was never comfortable under center (it didn't help that Klingler played behind the worst line in the NFL either) and never panned out.

I don't think the Bengals will take either one at four.  Basically, because neither might be there!

But if they do, there is some hope.  If you want to have a franchise QB, you have to take him high in the first round.  That's a fact.  Look at the best QB's in the game, other than Brady and Brees, all are high first round picks (Manning, Rivers, Rothlisberger, Vick, Flacco, Ryan, Rodgers . . .).  Plus, three of those QBs reached the playoffs in their rookie years (two - Flacco and Rothlisberger) actually reaching the AFC Championsip games!  So going with a rookie QB is no longer a death sentence for the upcoming season.

But the Bengals will likely take a QB with their second round pick (35th overall).  Their best round has always been the second, where they nabbed two of their best QBs, Kenny Anderson and Boomer Esiason.

So look for the Bengals to go WR with #4 (AJ Green out of Georgia) and then go QB at either #35 or with a trade up back into the first round for any one of these guys (Ryan Mallet, Christan Ponder, or Andy Dalton).

If they Bengals don't go WR - and that's a bit dicey as many WR's take high don't pan out (Roy Williams, Reggie Williams, Charles Rodgers . . .), they could go with the safest pick of all, CB Patrick Peterson out of LSU.  While many QB's taken high pan out, - there are many that don't: Erik Couch, Cade McNown, Jim Drunkenmiller, Byron Leftwich, Alex Smith, Kyle Boller, and Rex Grossman.   But most of the CB's taken high pan out (Champ Bailey should have been the Bengals selection in 1999 and Troy Vincent should have been their selection in 1992.  Maybe the third time will be a charm).  It doesn't look like the Bengals will spend the dough to keep their best corner, Jonathan Joseph.  So why not replace him with Peterson, who many think is the best player in the draft.  He can play the nickel corner (behind Leon Hall and Adam Jones) and pay immediately dividends as an outstanding punt returner.

Another option is Von Miller - a hellacious outside line backer who would bring a nastiness to our defense.  But he'll be gone.

In an interesting twist of fate, could the Bungals land two Heisman winners?  If Newton falls, the Bengals will scoop him up at four.  No question.  But what if Mark Ingram slides into the second round (as running backs tend to slide)?  Could they scoop him up at #35?  Imagine landing the last two Heisman winners in the same draft?