Tuesday, March 02, 2010

NFL Draft

Marvin Lewis is taking some heat for calling the NLF combine "asinine."

But when you log on to ESPN and see quotes like these --

• Missouri OLB Sean Weatherspoon has been impressive thus far. After weighing in at 239 pounds and measuring 6-1⅜, he put up 34 reps on the 225-pound bench press, then posted an unofficial 40-yard dash time of 4.57 seconds. That comes as little surprise, though, given the above-average range we saw from him both on film and at the Senior Bowl.

• Georgia Tech DE Derrick Morgan stood out in a drill designed to simulate alternating between shedding stand-up blockers and fighting off cut blocks. While his punch could have been more violent he stayed low and looked smooth getting down the line.

• Tennessee DT Dan Williams showed heavy hands and above-average upper-body strength while slapping and ripping though big bags today. Like Morgan, Williams' punch could be more compact and sudden but he still had a strong performance.

• Massive Alabama DT Terrence Cody has shed some weight but still ran the slowest 40-yard dash time of his group at 5.68 seconds. In fairness, though, Cody's 40 time doesn't much matter because he will primarily be occupying blockers and eating up space in the middle of the 3-4 defense.

I mean, come on! If drafting was an exact science, there'd never be any first round blunders like David Klingers (Thank you Mike Brown), Demetrius Underwoods, Ryan Leafs, or Vernon Gholstons.

And there'd also be no late round gems like TJ houshmandzadeh (Thank you Dick LeBeau), Tom Brady, Michael Turner, and Maurice Colston.

Lewis was not only referring to that, but also to the new industry that has sprung up in the last decade where athletes drop out of school and abandon their programs and move across the country to some sport-prep expert or facility to train them specifically for the drills at the NFL combine.

And the stupid NFL falls for this dog and pony show every damned time. Instead of watching film and talking to coaches and interviewing the players and going off instinct, teams will fall in love with a player because of his 'intangibles' (how quickly he can run the shuttle drill or leap in the broad jump or bench press 225 pounds).

I think the first real 'work out warrior' that kind of started this insanity was Mike Mamula. He was a talented kid who had a decent senior year. But he absolutely blew the doors off the drills at the NFL combine.

And what happens?

The Philadelphia Eagles draft him high in the first round . . . and they have regretted ever since. He was okay, but never did he live up to his 'intangibles.'

This is the same reason that Jerry Rice fell to the 49ers in 1986. He ran a 'slow' 40 yard dash. Did anyone ever see Rice have trouble scoring or running past a defensive back? I think Rice silenced all his critics when (either in his first or second season) on MNF against the rival Rams, he had two touchdown catches of 90 plus yards.

The real foolishness of the NFL combine and all the preparation that goes into it, is that how many of these kids will ever work this hard again? They are putting it all on the line for that multi-million dollar paycheck. But will they stay motivated after that? That has to keep coaches, scouts, GMs, and owners up at night.

Remember Freddie Mitchell? He had a very good career at wide receiver for UCLA. He put up a solid combine performance. The Eagles spent a high first round pick on him, and he never did a thing in the NFL (outside of catching a really big third or fourth down pass in OT to help beat the Packers in the playoffs). One has to wonder if he got the paycheck and just coasted his way right out of the league.

So even if you don't fall prey to all the trappings of the combine, and you select the top rated player on the board, you can still get it all wrong.

Just take a look through the history of your favorite team's drafts. You'll see a ton of names that don't sound faintly familiar. And here's why: there is really no way to discern what separates a Tony Mandarich from an Anthony Munoz or an Eddie Brown from a Jerry Rice or an Adrian Peterson from a Darrin Nelson (there you go Vikings fans).

And that is why the NFL draft is so fascinating. You never know what players will pan out. And you never know what teams are going to do.

Who would have thought the Texans wouldn't have drafted Reggie Bush first overall a few years ago (they too Mario Williams instead - and were right to do so)? And the team that did draft Bush, could have no idea that in the final round of the draft, they'd get a much better - and more prolific - player - Maurice Colston, who has FAR outperformed Bush.

That is why every pick counts.

And even when you are sure your team has messed it all up, you still can be wrong.

The Titans spent a second round pick on a speedy running back named Chris Henry. Then they turned around and did the same thing the next year, although this time they spent a first round pick, on another speedy and unheralded back - Chris Johnson. The latter has made the former totally irrelevant.

Think of the 1999 draft. The Eagles fans booed when they opted for Donovan McNabb over Ricky Williams. And while Williams has had a bit of a renaissance after being out of the league and retiring and playing in Canada, there is little doubt that McNabb has been the superior performer. The Colts stunned the world when the took Edgerrin James out of Miami ahead of the Heisman Trophy winner Williams.

The Mike Ditka traded his whole damn draft to the Redskins so he could select Williams. Now this sounds like a complete steal for the Redskins, but it really wasn't. Sure, they got a great player (Champ Bailey) AND all those extra picks. But look at those picks. No household names and most - if not all - are out of the league now.

Then there was just the disasterous quarterbacks taken. First, Tim Couch. Out of the league. Third, Akili Smith. Out of the league. Eleventh, Daunte Culpepper. Back up. Twelfth, Cad McNown. Out of the league. What a disaster!

Then there was the bountiful running back draft from 2008. Look at these names - Jonathan Stewart (a Pro Bowl player for Carolina), Reshard Mendenhall (a thousand yard rusher for the Steelers this past season), Chris Johnson (the reigning NFL offensive player of the year for the Titans), Matt Forte (a big time rusher for the Bears), Ray Rice (the yards from scrimmage leader this year - and a Pro Bowl player for the Ravens), Jamaal Charles (coming off a stunning last part of the year for the Chiefs where he broke a thousand yards), and Steve Slaton (a rookie of the year performer for the Texans and a solid rusher when healthy). Now, those NFL draft experts, will notice that the first running back drafted - Darren McFadden is not on that list. He has been a bust so far. Yet, he was taken ahead of all of these others.

So in 50 days, when the first round begins Thursday night, hope springs eternal. You never know which players - as the draft unfolds throughout the next two days - will be great and which will disappear. But the great thing is that before the season begins, they all have potential!

After all, who would have thought the Saints would be world champs?

Hope is indeed eternal.

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