Bengals in 2010

With the official end of the '09 NFL season less than 48 hours away, I'll offer a peek ahead to the 2010 season for the Bengals and AFC North.

The Bengals played their best ball the first nine weeks of '09. When they defeated the former world champion Steelers in Pittsburgh it not only lift their record to 7-2 and 5-0 in the division, but it also gave a little bit of hope to Bengal nation that this could be the team we've been waiting for since 1988. After that win, though, they lost two heart breakers out on the west coast (losing by a total of six points to the Raiders and Chargers). But it also featured two blowouts (at MN and NY).

But the good news is that their defense is very, very good. When Domato Peko is healthy, he is one of the best run stuffers in the AFC. He could use some help since their young tackle, Pat Sims, broke his wrist in the final regular season game and the other starting tackle, Tank Johnson, is a free agent. The draft is deep at DT this year, so the Bengals could take one in the first round if there aren't any wide receivers or tight ends to their liking late in the first round.

The defensive ends - outside of Antwan Odom, who would have been in the Pro Bowl as he was second in the league in sacks, but he tore his calf muscle and was lost for the season - are average. Robert Geathers had one good year and has been just okay as a starter. Jonathan Fanene did okay filling in for Odom, but he is average at best too. Frostee Rucker was a waste of a third round draft pick in '06. There is some hope that last year's third round pick, Michael Johnson, will make some major strides in his second year. Next to Odom, Johnson is their best pass rusher.

Their linebacker core is young and in good hands with a pair of Trojans, Keith Rivers and Ray Maualuga. Both are young and solid. The only week spot is the middle linebacker, Dhani Jones. He is playing the best he has played in his career, but they could use an upgrade (how nice would it be to see Brandon Spikes fall to them in the draft).

The secondary - especially the corners - is a strength. Leon Hall and Jonathan Joseph are the best corner back tandem in the league. Both were robbed of the Pro Bowl. Hopefully, the Bengals can take advantage and get Joseph signed to a contract extension before next year, when if he has another strong season, he'll command far more money.

The safeties are average. Chris Crocker is fine. They signed the former Cowboy Roy Williams, but his lingering forearm injury from the season before still lingered, and he missed most of the season. Chinedum Ndukwe is okay as the other safety. Look for the Bengals to draft a safety on the first day (Myron Rolle - the Rhodes Scholar from FSU - would be a nice pick in the third or fourth round. Chad Jones would be a nice pick in the second or third round too).

The work for the Bengals will come on offense. They started the year strong, but the passing game withered the last half of the season.

The Bengals pounded the ball on everyone last year. But their passing game looked as bad as I've seen it under Marvin Lewis. Part of this is that Ochocinco now is a nice receiver, not a game breaker. And they don't have any other threats.

Starting up front, they only stand to lose one lineman - Bobbi Williams - to free agency. The line was easily the biggest surprise of the year. While they struggled to protect Palmer at key moments. But as stated earlier, they could run the ball on anyone. So well, in fact, that they are the only team in NFL history to have three different running backs run for 100 yards in three consecutive games (rookie Bernard Scott against Oakland, Larry Johnson against Cleveland, and Cedric Benson against Detroit). The offensive line should only get better next year with their young mastodon, Andre Smith, ready to step in and start at right tackle next season. He should be an excellent road grader.

The backfield is fine too. While LJ is gone, they still have their bell cow in Ced Benson and an excellent change of pace runner in Bernard Scott. Their third down back, Brian Leonard, made some very key plays last year. They really need to use Scott the way they used their former first round pick, Chris Perry, back in 2005.

The wide receiver position needs major upgrading. Ochocinco is okay. He had a really good season, considering there was no threat opposite him. Laverneous Coles, who they shelled out millions for as he tried to replace TJ Houshmenzada, but he was a total bust. They would be better off releasing him and saving the money. Andre Cadlwell is okay as the third receiver. Their former second round pick, Jerome Simpson (taken ahead of the Eagles Pro Bowler Desean Jackson) has been a total wash. Time to cut him and move on. Quan Cosby was a nice undrafted free agent rookie addition as a punt returner and occasional receiver. They'll have to bring in a free agent (Ocho is lobbying hard for T.O - gulp - but he would be an upgrade) to bolster the passing game. They will also have to grab one or two on the first day of the draft (I love Golden Tate from Notre Dame and Marty Gilyard from Cincy).

The tight end position is a disaster. Their regular starter, Reggie Kelly, went down with an Achilles injury in the preseason. Their other tight end, Ben Utecht, also suffered a season ending injury and was released. A former undrafted rookie free agent Daniel Coats stepped in to the line up. He is a fine blocker, but he has stones for hands. They brought in JP Fauchi off the street and he ended up beating out Coats. Both are below average players and the Bengals should seriously think about spending some serious money here to improve the position or draft one of the two top tight ends in the late first round. Carson needs more weapons and, as of now, it doesn't look like there will be a WR worth the 21 pick in the first round, but they could get one of the top TE there.

There is a question about their quarterback, Carson Palmer. Is his arm healthy? He missed most of the '08 season with an injured elbow. There is no doubt that this team doesn't win four games if they don't have Palmer, but he sure looked terrible down the stretch. But to be fair, the entire passing game looked atrocious.

The Bengals website writer, Geoff Hobson, argues the Bengals should stand pat on offense, and keep the emphasis on the running game. But I disagree.

He can talk about teams that run the ball well and play solid defense (two strengths of the Bengals) winning the Super Bowl, but the truth doesn't bear that out. Think of the Colts several years ago. They won because of Manning. The following year the Giants won the Super Bowl not because of their running game but because of the right arm of Eli Manning (and one great catch by David Tyree). Then Pittsburgh won it on the strength of Rothlisberger's arm.

And if the Bengals had a top 5 defense (as they did this year) in either '05, '06, or '07, they are easily one of the best teams in the league and maybe play in an AFC title game.

They need to get that passing attack back to where it was.

ESPN AFC North blogger James Walker revealed his list of the top 40 players in the AFC North. The Bengals registered 8, but none in the top ten. They peeked with Carson Palmer and Cedric Benson at 12 and 11 respectively.

If the Bengals keep Palmer healthy, maintain their strong defense and rugged ground game, and just get the passing attack in the top half of the league, the Bengals could repeat as AFC North champs. I don't think that will happen, though.

If Mike Brown were to seriously go after some offensive threats (Boldin from Arizona or Marshall from Denver) then they would be dangerous. But Brown is the epitome of conservative. He'll add a few minor role players in free agency. He might get lucky and low-ball one of their own stars and get a long-term deal done. He might add an aging vet for a bargain price (one reason I could see TO in stripes). But he won't be aggressive and spend the money to take advantage of this window of opportunity for the Bengals.

So the Bengals will be lucky to see 10-6 again. Here's how I see the AFC North breaking down in '10:

1. Pittsburgh Steelers - 11-5. They might have been the hottest team in the NFL. But a five or six game losing streak last year killed them. They have the most talent in the division and one of the best organizations in all of the NFL.

2. Cincinnati - 9-7. Granted that the schedule is far more difficult, but if they can have a winning record in the division, they have a good chance to pick up enough wins to have a winning record. Especially given their strong defense.

3. Baltimore Ravens - 8-8. I know they did better than Cincy in the playoffs, but outside of Ray Rice and John Flacco, this team is getting very old. Ed Reed, Ray Lewis, and their corners are all old. Yes, they can pound the ball. But - like the Bengals - they are lacking any type of explosiveness from the receivers.

4. Cleveland Browns - 7-9. They always disappoint. Josh Cribbs in the best all-around player in the AFC North, but he doesn't get enough touches as a kick returner and some time receiver. Their quarterback situation is a total mess. You won't win many games without a strong quarterback.