My College Comp students are taking their second novel tests right now. I have been joking with them for the past few weeks that it was going to snow this weekend, which just happens to be prom.
Well, it looks like I would make a fine meteriologist!
To lighten things up, I played a little “Let it Snow! Let it Snow! Let it Snow!” by Frank Sinatra at the beginning of the class.
Didn’t go over well.
They weren’t in the mood for Aretha Franklin’s “Winter Wonderland.”
Nor were they too keen on “Sleigh Ride” by Johnny Mathis.
But it sure livened things up
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This weekend is my favorite of the year. That’s right! The annual NFL draft.
Hope springs eternal for all NFL franchises.
Sure, some are the odds on favorites to go to the Super Bowl (New England, Indianapolis, Jacksonville), but if you were to rewind to last year’s draft, would anyone have given the Giants even a remote shot at winning the Super Bowl?
No.
You could rewind to the middle of last season and still no one would have given them a shot.
Yet, it happened.
Hope springs eternal.
The drama is over for the #1 pick: Jake Long. The Dolphins have signed him to a contract already.
That likely means St. Louis will opt for either Glen Dorsey (the top player on many draft boards) or Chris Long (Howie’s son).
Atlanta is picking third. Most seem to think that the first quarterback will come of the board here: Matt Ryan. I doubt that he’ll experience a free fall like several past quarterbacks (Ben Rothlesberger, Aaron Rogers, and Brady Quinn).
Picking fourth are the perennially horrible Raiders. If Chris Long is still on the board, how could they possibly pass up Howie’s son. It’s not like his father didn’t have a hall of fame career for the Raiders. But you never know with the Raiders. I think they are the only team in NFL history to ever pick both a kicker (Sebastian Janikowski) and a punter (Ray Guy) in the first round. So you never know who’ll they’ll take.
Sitting in the fifth slot are the Kansas City Chiefs. This pick could go any number of ways. They could go OT (Ryan Clady is a stud). They could go defense (Long, if he’s there, or Vernon Gholston out of Ohio State). They could take a QB if Ryan is still there. Or they could even opt RB and select Darren McFadden out of Arkansas. Or they could trade down with a team looking to leap from into the top five to grab the best available player ahead of the Jets, Ravens, and Bengals.
In the sixth slot are the equally terrible Jets. Many mock drafts have them selecting McFadden. It’s true the Jets don’t have much for a running game. But they don’t really have much of anything. Their QB could be upgraded. Their offensive line is in shambles. There isn’t a team in the NFL that couldn’t use an impact player along their front line. So the Jets are the true wildcard here.
Rest assured, though, whomever they take their finds will be unhappy with the pick and boo.
Picking seventh are the Patriots. You never know what this team will do. They love to trade down for extra picks in the middle rounds or even in future drafts. In fact, that’s how they wound up with this pick (they traded an extra first round pick to San Fran in last year’s draft for San Fran’s first round pick this year. And it was brilliant because the Pats lost their own first round pick because of the spy gate scandal). I say they trade out with a team looking to jump ahead of the Bengals, who will be looking to take Sedrick Ellis with the ninth pick. If they stay put they could take Ellis themselves, though their more pressing need is for youth at linebacker and Keith Rivers is the best LB in the draft.
The Ravens are slotted eighth. They need a QB thanks to McNair’s retirement and the fact that Kyle Boller has never developed. But there’s no way they take the second quarterback here. That would be a major reach. This team, who had one of the better runs in draft history over the past 15 years, loves to wheel and deal. So they could deal down for a team wanting Ellis or the best CB in the draft. If they stay put, I say they take Leodis Macklevin, the CB out of Troy.
Next are my beloved Bengals. At least last year’s miserable season netted us a top ten pick. The last time we had a top ten pick, we landed Carson Palmer, who has brought this franchise back to life. They would select Sedrick Ellis in about .08 seconds if he’s there. If he’s not, I think they go RB. They might trade down, but I doubt it. I always want them to do that, but it never happens.
I’d love to see them move down to around pick 17 in exchange for an extra second round pick. This is a win-win situation (especially if Ellis is off the board by the time they pick). They could still get the second or third best back in the draft (Rashad Mendenhall or Jonathan Stewart). Plus, they would get an extra player in the second round. If you’re a Bengals fan, you know the first round players come and go. But they seem to strike gold in the second round (Chris Collinsworth, Ickey Woods, Carl Pickens, Harold Green, Darnay Scott, Chad Johnson, Tony McGhee, Eric Steinbach, Corey Dillon). Also, trading out of the top ten means you have to pay the player significantly less, which means you can spend that money on a veteran in free agency or extend a current starters contract.
Rounding out the top ten are the Saints. They scare me. They covet Ellis and might be willing to shell out a second round pick to move up ahead of the Bengals to grab him.
What will be different about this year’s draft is that it will be rapid fire compared to years past. Formerly each team had 15 minutes to select a player in the first round. Given that there are 32 teams, that could take hours. To speed things up, the time has been reduced to just 10 minutes. The second round too has been shortened from 10 to 7 minutes.
Also the NFL moved the start time back from 11 am to 2 pm.
The draft just used to for a few geeky football fanatics (like me). There might be one magazine you could buy prior to the draft. Then it was just on ESPN.
Now, though, it’s an event. There are dozens of draft magazines available. Since the rise of the NFL Network, there will be two networks covering the draft for a combined 48 hours!
“Who cares about the draft?” A friend of mine asks. “Half the first round picks never pan out anyway,” he says.
That’s true. That’s what’s so great about it.
You never know whose going to be the big winners or the big losers. It actually takes 3 or 4 years to see if a draft panned out or not.
So, really, for those two days in late April, every pick is a winner.
Plus, you never know when your team is going to draft that diamond in the rough in rounds 3-7. Tom Brady was a sixth round pick. Joe Montana was a third rounder. TJ Houschmandzada for the Bengals was a seventh round pick. Terrel Owens was taken in the fourth (I believe). Even the Vikings, who traded away their first round pick and third rounders, plus a pick next year) to get the Chief’s Jared Allen, are getting a guy who was taken in the fourth round.
You just never know.
That’s what’s so great about it.
A couple good drafts can revive a franchise. For years the Chargers were horrible. Then they hit on LaDanian Tomlinson. Then they go the quarterback they needed, Philip Rivers. Then they revived their defense with Shawn Merriman, Louis Castillo, and Antonio Cromartie. Suddenly, you have one of the best teams from top to bottom in the NFL.
The same can be said for New England, Indianapolis, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and the Giants.
However, if you strike out on a draft, it can set you back years.
Case in point: the Bengals ’05 draft.
First round: David Pollack (#17 overall in the first round) – He was one of the best pass rushers in the history of college football coming out of Georgia. The Bengals decided to move him to OLB since he was deemed light for a DE. He had his ups and downs his rookie year, but he was playing very well by the end of the season and helped them win their first AFC North title and reach the playoffs for the first time in 13 years (or since I was a junior in high school).
Second round: Odell Thurman (#48 overall) – He was the biggest impact player they drafted. He was a troubled young middle linebacker taken out of Georgia. He had tons of talent, but a checkered past with alcohol and drugs. As a rookie Thurman helped the Bengals start 4-0. He was quick and forced turnovers. He has 5 interceptions and forced 4 fumbles. He also scored a TD on an interception against the Titans. Had the Bengals not lost their last 3 games, he might have been voted to the Pro Bowl. He was poised to easily become the best LB the Bengals have had in recent memory.
Third round: Chris Henry (#83) – He too was a troubled young player. Henry was huge 6’4’’ and fast (4.3 speed). But he dropped because he was thrown off the West Virginia football team. Tons of talent but when would he explode? He too had a phenomenal rookie year, scoring 9 touchdowns, about once every four times he touched the ball. With Chad Johnson, TJ, and Henry, defenses didn’t know who to cover.
Fourth round: Eric Ghiaciuc (#119) – He was to be our center of the future. Rich Braham was nearing the end and Ghiaciuc was going to be groomed as his replacement. He, in fact, started one game that year for Braham when he was injured.
Fifth round: Adam Kieft (#153) – Ghiahiuc’s teammate from Central Michigan. He was to be groomed as a potential starter at T. However, he tore his knee up in summer camp and was put on IR.
Sixth round: Tab Perry (#190) – A great kick returner and received from UCLA. He worked his way up to the fourth wide receiver and became the top kick returner. His shining moment came in the pivotal game at Pittsburgh where he returned a kickoff 95 yards down to the two yard line (carrying Steelers on his back the final 10 yards). That victory gave the Bengals not only their first winning season in over a decade but it also gave them a key one game lead over the Steelers in their division.
Seventh round: Jonathan Fanene (#233) – the final selection. He was a defensive end out of Utah. Didn’t see much playing time, but he did make a big play in that win at Pittsburgh where he pressured Rothlisberger and hurt the QB’s throwing hand (in fact, the next pass would be picked off by Odell Thurman).
On production alone, that class earned a solid A+ at the end of the ’05 season. That class should have given the Bengals a solid foundation to be a consistent playoff team for years to come.
However, things fell apart rapidly. Here’s a look at the class after three years.
1. Pollack – just retired. He suffered a broken neck in the second game of the ’06 season.
2. Thurman – just reinstated. He failed to meet the NFL’s substance abuse policy and was suspended the first four games of his second season. Then he was convicted of a DUI and suspended for the rest of the season. You would have thought he learned his lesson, but he obviously didn’t as the commissioner failed to reinstate him for his third season. So Thurman has yet to play a game beyond his rookie year, though he was finally reinstated this year. But who knows what two years away from the game will have done to him. He is still only 25, but who knows. All that great potential wasted.
3. Henry – released. His plight is worse than Thurman’s. During his rookie year Marvin Lewis benched him for a drug violation late in the season. Then in the playoffs, he returned and hauled in Carson Palmer’s first pass against the Steelers (good for 66 yards), but he was hurt along with Carson Palmer on that play. Henry was in further trouble his second year and was suspended two games. He was suspended for the first eight games last year for multiple run-ins with the law. When he finally returned, you would think the man would have learned his lesson, especially after the commissioner told him that this was his final chance to play in the league. Well, just this month he was arrested on assault charges and released by the Bengals.
That’s a big fat F- for the top three picks in a draft that could have been so could.
To compound matters Ghiaciuc has been just an average center. Kieft has never recovered fully from his knee injury and has yet to play in a game for the Bengals. Perry never had the success he had his rookie year, suffering injuries that wiped out basically the past two seasons. The Bengals chose not to resign him because of his injury history. Fanane was signed to a lucrative contract extension, though.
But when the most productive player is your seventh round draft choice (and his production so far has been legligible), that ain’t good!
So that draft helped us win the AFC North in ’05. There is no way they would have won it without that draft class. But since then, the Bengals have not had another wining season, with this year being their first losing season under Marvin Lewis. And it all can be traced back to this draft.
Instead of being able to focus on building other areas of their team, the Bengals were forced to try and compensate for the lack of production from these players. And it has set them back. We even saw the God-awful Browns seem to surge ahead in the AFC North!
But, hope springs eternal. If they could land the same type of production, without the character flaws, the Bengals could be special again.
At least that’s what I hope! Until the next draft, then we can start rebuilding (and hoping) again.
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Here’s my mock draft for all seven rounds (not that anyone else cares about this, though. I’ll just look back and see if I was even close). Hey, Mel Kiper Jr has made millions off of this stuff!
Cincy’s ’08 draft (they have 10 total selections barring trades)
1. Sedrick Ellis –DT
2. Ray Rice – RB
3a. Donnie Avery – WR
3b. Chris Ellis – DE
4. John Greco – OT
5. Ali Highsmith – LB
6a. Geathers – DE
6b. Adrian Arrington – WR
7a. J, Leman – LB
7b. Craig Stetz – S
Well, we’ll see how close I was or how far off. The truth is, no one is even sure. Some teams will rate a player higher than others. Some will take players totally off their draft boards because of off the field issues (many clubs would never have drafted Thurman or Henry AT ALL because of their off the field issues).
Either way, it’s about 18 hours worth of pure football bliss.
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